2006

 

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Specification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature. J. Climate (in press).

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2006a: On the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, Part I: The role of remote forcing from tropical Pacific. J. Climate (in press).

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2006b: On the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, Part II: Regional processes. J. Climate (submitted).

 

Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change. GRL (submitted).

 

Shukla, J. and J. L. Kinter III, 2006: Predictability of seasonal climate variations: A pedagogical review. In Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds. (in press).

 

 

2005

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2005: The ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 18, 1652-1672.

 

Kang, I.-S. and J. Shukla, 2005: Dynamical seasonal prediction and predictability of monsoon. In The Asian Monsoon (B. Wang, ed.), Praxis Pub. Ltd., Chichester, UK.

 

Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022734.

 

2003

 

Straus D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, 2003: Predictability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter and Spring. J. climate, 16, No. 22, 3629-3649.

 

2002

Del Sole, T., and J. Shukla, 2002: Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 15, 3645-3658.

 

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002a: Intercomparison of atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El Ni–o event. J. Climate, 15, 2791-2805.

 

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002b: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsson precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., 19, 383-395.

 

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2002: Interactive coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1367, doi:10.1029/2002GLO14834.

 

Straus, D. M., and  J. Shukla, 2002: Does ENSO force the PNA? J. Climate, 15, 2340 - 2358.

 

 

2001

 

Blackmon, M., É, J. Shukla, É, E. K. Schneider, and coauthors, 2001: The Community Climate System Model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2357-2376.

 

Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, S. Zebiak, 2001c: Current status of ENSO forecast skill. World Climate Research Program (WRCP) Report,  23/01, 26 pp.

 

Krishnamurthy, V.,  and J. Shukla, 2001: Observed and model simulated interannual variability of the Indian monsoon. Mausam, 52, 133-150.

 

Shukla, J. (ed.), 2001: Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes: Selected Papers of Jule Gregory Charney. A. Deepak Publ. (Hampton, VA, 611 pp).

 

 

2000

ennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 2000:Seasonal                                        

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2000: Influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO.  Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 126, 213-239.

 

Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2000: Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India.  J. Climate, 13, 4366-4377.

                                                                                               

Reale, O. and J. Shukla, 2000: Modeling the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman classical period.  Part II: Model simulation. Global and Planetary Change,25, 185-214.

 

Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx and R. Mo, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Predictions with the COLA Atmospheric Model. Quart. J. Royal. Meteor. Soc.,126, 2265-2291.

 

Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic, Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. A. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S. Schubert, D. M. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2593-2606.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 2000: Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes: Analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc,126, 2323-2350.

 

 

1999

 

Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla, 1999: Relation between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian Summer Monsoon: An Observational Study. J. Climate, 12, 3117-3132.

 

Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1999: Impact of Initial Soil Wetness on Seasonal Atmospheric Prediction. J. Climate, 12, 3167-3180.

 

            Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. P. Kirtman, and J. Shukla, 1999: Ocean Data Assimilation Initialization and Prediction of ENSO with a Coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1187-1207.

 

Shukla, J., J. L. Kinter, E. K. Schneider, D. M. Straus, 1999: Chapter 3: Modelling of the Climate System. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Editors: P. Mertens and J. Rotmans, 51-104.

                       

1998

 

Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting. Science, 282, 728-731.            

 

Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: The monsoon: Processes, predictability, and prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14451-14510.

 

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1998: Model Simulation of the Influence of Global SST Anomalies on the Sahel Rainfall. J. Climate, 126, 2782-2792.             

 

1997

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997a: An examinationof AGCM simulated surface wind stress and low level winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 985-998.

 

Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997b: Characteristics of interannual and decadal variability in a general circulation model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1693-1712.

 

Kirtman, B.P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu and E.K. Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean global atmosphere system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 789-808.

 

Schneider, E.K., Z. Zhu, B. Huang, B. Giese, B.P. Kirtman, J. Shukla, and J. Carton, 1997: ENSO variability in a coupled general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 680-702.

 

Straus, D.M., and J. Shukla, 1997: Variations of mid-latitude transient dynamics associated with ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 777-790.

 

1996

 

Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla, 1996: The effect on regional and global climate of expansion of the WorldÕs deserts.  Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 530, 451-482.

 

Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 1996: A comparison of two surface wind analyses over the tropical Atlantic during 1980-87. J. Climate, 9, 906-927.

 

Nobre. P. and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate, 9, 2464-2479.

 

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1996: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate.  PART II: Afforestation. J. Climate, 9, 3260-3275.

 

1995

 

Huang, B., J.A. Carton and J. Shukla, 1995: A numerical simulation of the variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, 1980-88. J. Phys. Oceanog., 25, 835-854.

 

Paolino,  D. A., Q. Yang, B. Doty, J. Kinter, J. Shukla, D. Straus, 1995: Results of a pilot reanalysis project at COLA.  Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 76, 697-710.

 

Schneider, E.K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 1995: Ocean Wave Dynamics of El Ni–o. J. Climate, 8, 2415-2439.

 

Shukla, J. 1995: On the initiation and persistence of the Sahel drought. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 44-48.

 

  1994

 

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1994:  Albedo as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 923-935.  

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994:  GCM Simulations of active and break monsoon periods.  Proc. MONEG International Conference on Moonsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp. 576-585.

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994:  Simulation and predictability of monsoons. Proc. MONEG International Conference on Moonsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp 567-575.

 

Fennessy, M. J., J. L. Kinter III, B. Kirtman, L. Marx., S. Nigam, E. Schneider, J. Shukla., D. Straus. A. Vernekar, Y. Xue, and J. Zhou, 1994: The simulated Asian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study.  J. Climate, 7, 33-43.

Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1994: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on Indian monsoon. J. of Climate, 8, 248-266.

 

Yang, R., M. J. Fennessy and J. Shukla, 1994:  The influence of initial soil wetness on medium  range surface weather forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 471-485.

 

Yang, R., J. Shukla and P. J. Sellers, 1994:  The influence of changes in vegetation type on the surface energy budget.  Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 11, 139-161.

 

1993

 

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1993:  Observational and Modeling Studies of the Influence of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Atmospheric Circulation (Review).  Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations.  NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 1-24.

 

Fennessy, M.J., J.L. Kinter III, L. Marx, P. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1993:  Influence of initial soil wetness on GCM simulation of th 1988 U.S. drought and heat wave. Conference on Hydroclimatology (Anaheim, CA, 17-22 January 1993).

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1993:  Aperiodic variability in the Cane-Zebick model: A diagnostic study.  J. Climate, 5, 628-638.

 

Robinson, A.R., C.J. Garrett, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, S. Manage, S.G. Philander, N. Pinardi, W. Roether, F.A. Schott and J. Shukla, 1993: Mediterranean and Global Ocean and Climate Dynamics. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 74, No. 44, 506-507.

           

Shukla, J. 1993: Predictability of short-term climate variations. Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations.  NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, Editor:  J. Shukla, 217-232.     

 

Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1993:  The effect of Eurasian spring snow cover on Indian summer monsoon.  WCRP-80, WMO/TD-No. 546, 69-73.

 

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1993: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. PART I: Desertification.  J. Climate, 6, 2232-2245.

 

1992

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1992:  Influence of Global SST on GCM simulations of the Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Circulations of 1987 and 1988. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.37‑2.46.

 

Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, J. L. Kinter III and J. Shukla, 1992:  The influence of global SST on the 1988 U.S. Drought:  A comparison with two general circulation models.  Proc. Workshop on 1988 U.S. Drought, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD  20742.

 

Shukla, J. and M. J. Fennessy, 1992:  Idealized numerical experiments to diagnose the simulated Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall.  Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.153‑2.157.

 

1991

 

Carton, J. A. and J. Shukla, 1991:  Predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  J. of Marine Systems, 1, 299‑313.

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1991:  Comparison of the impact of the 1982‑83 and 1986‑88 Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction of atmospheric circulation and rainfall.  J. Clim., 4, 407‑423.

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991:  Predictability and variability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model.  J. of Marine Systems, 1, 217‑228.

 

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991:  Predictability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model.  J. Climate, 3, 2‑22.

 

Kinter III, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx and B. Doty, 1991:  Relationship between GCM forecast errors and seasonal variability:  Tropical heating and extratropical circulation.  IUGG XX General Assembly, IAMAP Symposium on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow and Variability (Vienna, Austria, 19-23 August, 1991).  IAMAP, 1991.

 

Nobre, C. A., P. J. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1991:  Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change.  J. Climate, 4, 957‑988.

 

Shukla, J., M. J. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter III, L. Marx and E. K, Schneider, 1991: Seasonal predictions with the COLA GCM. Proc. ICTP/WMO Technical Conference on Long-Range Weather Forecasting Research, 249.

 

Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. Kinter and J. Shukla, 1991:  A simplified model for global climate studies. J. Climate, 4, 345‑364.

                                                                                   

1990

 

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1990: The global hydrologic and energy cycles: Suggestions for studies in the pre-GEWEX period. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 181-189.

 

Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990:  Amazonia deforestation and climate change. Science, 247, 1322‑1325.

                                               

1989

 

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1989:  Meeting Review: Reanalysis for TOGA (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere).  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 70, 1422‑1427.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989:  Index of activity of the monsoon trough over India.  MAUSAM, 40, 247‑258.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989:  Main features of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems which form over the Indian regions during the summer monsoon season and their relation to the monsoon rainfall.  MAUSAM, 40, 137‑152.

 

Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi, 1989:  Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model.  J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 2757‑2782.

 

Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi, 1989:  Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model:  Methodologies and results.  NASA Contractor Report 185509, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, 76 pp.

 

Shukla, J., 1989:  Tropical forecasting: Predictability perspective. Austral. Meteor. Mag., 37, 141‑153.  

 

1988

 

Bengtsson, L. and J. Shukla, 1988: Integration of space and in situ observation to study climate change. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 69, 1130-1143.

 

Charney, J. G., E. Kalnay, E. K. Schneider and J. Shukla, 1988: A study of the dynamics of the ITCZ in a symmetric atmosphere-ocean model. (Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9 December 1977), New Delhi, India, NASA Tech. Memo. 86220, 20pp.

                                               

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988:  Impact of the 1982‑3 and 1986‑7 Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction with the GLAS GCM.  Proceedings of a Workshop on Modelling the Sensitivity and Variations of the OceanAtmosphere System (11‑13 May, 1988), ECMWF, England, World Climate Research Program Report:  WCRP‑15.  (WMO/TD ‑ No. 254), Geneva, pp. 26‑44.

 

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988:  Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to the time‑varying El Ni–o SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983.  J. Climate, 1, 195‑211.

 

Kinter, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx, E. Schneider, 1988:  A simulation of the winter and summer circulation with the NMC global spectral model.  J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2486‑2522.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1988:  Characteristics of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems over the Indian region and their relationship with the monsoon rainfall.  Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.

 

Shukla, J., 1988:  Predictability of monthly mean circulation and rainfall: Part I: Classical dynamical predictability experiments; and Part II: Influences of 1982‑83 and 1986‑87 El Ni–o SST anomalies.  Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (16‑18 May 1988), ECMWF, England, 251‑261.

 

Shukla, J., 1988:  Variability of rainfall over tropical oceans:  Scientific basis and justification for TRMM.  Tropical Rainfall Measurements.  Editors:  J. S. Theon and N. Fugono,  A. Deepak Publishing, pp. 75‑79. 

 

Shukla, J. and M. Fennessy, 1988:  Prediction of time mean atmospheric circulation and rainfall:  Influence of Pacific SST anomaly.  J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 9‑28.

 

Shukla, J., D. A. Mooley and D. A. Paolino, 1988:  Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India.  Persistent meteo‑oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections, Pontificale academiae scientiarum scripta varia, 69.  Editors:  C. Chagas and G. Puppi, Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, pp. 147‑178.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations.  Part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic.  AtmosphereOcean, 26, 541‑574.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations.  Part II: Stationary waves and transient fluctuations.  AtmosphereOcean, 26, 575‑607.

 

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988:  The seasonal cycle of energetics from the GLAS/UMD Climate GCM. NASA Tech. Memo. 100714.

 

Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, 1988:  Influence of land‑surface roughness on atmospheric circulation and rainfall: A sensitivity study with GCM.  J. Clim. App. Meteor., 27, 1036‑1054.

 

1987

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987:  Evaluation of April 500 mb ridge and Darwin pressure trend as predictors for Indian monsoon rainfall.  Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Applied Meteorology (10‑12 March 1987), Baltimore, MD, published by AMS, 46‑48.

 

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987:  Variability and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.  Monsoon Meteorology.  Editors: C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti.  Oxford University Press, pp. 26‑59.

 

Shukla, J, 1987:  General circulation modeling and the tropics.  Geophysiology of Amazonia:Vegetation and Climate Interactions.  Editor:  R. E. Dickinson, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 409‑461.

 

Shukla, J., 1987:  Interannual variability of monsoons.  Monsoons.  Editors:  Jay S.Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 399‑464.

 

Shukla, J., 1987:  Long range forecasting of Indian monsoons.  Science Age, November, 21‑23.

 

Shukla, J, 1987:  Long range forecasting of monsoons.  Monsoons.  Editors:  Jay S. Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 523‑547.

 

Shukla, J, 1987:  Numerical simulation of atmospheric response to observed SST anomalies and oceanic response to observed wind stress:  Intercomparison of results from various GCMs.  Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (17‑19 March 1986), ECMWF, England, pp. 205‑220.

 

Shukla, J. and D. A. Mooley, 1987:  Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 695‑703.

 

 

1986

 

Shukla, J., 1986:  SST anomalies and blocking. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 29. Editor: R. Benzi, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 443‑452.

 

 

1985