2006
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Specification
of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature. J. Climate (in
press).
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2006a: On the mechanisms
of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, Part I: The role
of remote forcing from tropical Pacific. J. Climate (in press).
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2006b: On the mechanisms
of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, Part II: Regional
processes. J. Climate
(submitted).
Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D.
Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change. GRL
(submitted).
Shukla, J. and J. L. Kinter III, 2006: Predictability of
seasonal climate variations: A pedagogical review. In Predictability of Weather
and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds. (in press).
2005
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2005: The ocean-atmosphere
interactions in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 18, 1652-1672.
Kang, I.-S. and J. Shukla, 2005: Dynamical seasonal
prediction and predictability of monsoon. In The Asian Monsoon (B. Wang, ed.), Praxis Pub. Ltd., Chichester, UK.
Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla
and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction
of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711,
doi: 10.1029/2005GL022734.
2003
Straus D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Schubert, M. Suarez,
P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, 2003: Predictability
of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter and Spring.
J. climate, 16,
2002
Del Sole, T., and J. Shukla,
2002: Linear prediction
of Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 15,
Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V.
Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002a: Intercomparison of atmospheric GCM
simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El Ni–o event. J. Climate, 15, 2791-2805.
Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang,
K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002b: Intercomparison
of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsson precipitation
simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn.,
19, 383-395.
Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla,
2002: Interactive
coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs. Geophys. Res.
Lett., 29, 1367, doi:10.1029/2002GLO14834.
2001
Blackmon, M., É, J. Shukla, É, E. K. Schneider, and
coauthors, 2001: The Community Climate System Model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82,
2357-2376.
Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla,
M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, S. Zebiak, 2001c: Current
Krishnamurthy, V., and
J. Shukla, 2001: Observed and model simulated interannual variability of the
Indian monsoon. Mausam,
52, 133-150.
Shukla, J. (ed.), 2001:
Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes:
Selected Papers of
2000
ennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 2000:Seasonal
Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2000: Influence of the
Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO. Quart.
J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 126, 213-239.
Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2000: Intraseasonal
and interannual variability of rainfall over India. J. Climate, 13, 4366-4377.
Reale, O. and J. Shukla, 2000: Modeling
the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman classical
period. Part II: Model simulation. Global
and Planetary Change,25, 185-214.
Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M.
Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx and R. Mo, 2000: Dynamical
Seasonal Predictions with the COLA Atmospheric Model. Quart. J. Royal.
Meteor. Soc.,126, 2265-2291.
Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic,
Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. A. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S.
Schubert, D. M. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal
Prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
81, 2593-2606.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 2000: Distinguishing
between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes:
Analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quart. J. Royal Meteor.
Soc,126, 2323-2350.
1999
Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla,
1999: Relation
between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian Summer Monsoon: An
Observational Study. J. Climate, 12, 3117-3132.
Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla,
1999: Impact of Initial Soil Wetness on Seasonal Atmospheric Prediction.
J. Climate, 12, 3167-3180.
Schneider,
E. K., B. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. P. Kirtman, and J. Shukla,
1999: Ocean Data Assimilation Initialization and Prediction of ENSO with a
Coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1187-1207.
Shukla, J., J. L. Kinter, E. K. Schneider, D. M. Straus,
1999: Chapter 3: Modelling
of the Climate System. Kluwer
Academic Publishers, Editors: P. Mertens and J. Rotmans, 51-104.
1998
Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability
in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting. Science,
282, 728-731.
Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana,
T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: The monsoon: Processes, predictability, and prediction.
J. Geophys. Res., 103,
14451-14510.
Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1998:
Model Simulation of the Influence of Global SST Anomalies on the Sahel Rainfall. J. Climate, 126, 2782-2792.
1997
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997a: An examinationof AGCM
simulated surface wind stress and low level winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 985-998.
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997b: Characteristics of
interannual and decadal variability in a general circulation model of the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1693-1712.
Kirtman, B.P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu and E.K.
Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean global
atmosphere system. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
125, 789-808.
Schneider, E.K., Z. Zhu, B. Huang, B. Giese, B.P.
Kirtman, J. Shukla, and J. Carton, 1997: ENSO variability in a coupled general
circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
125, 680-702.
Straus, D.M., and J. Shukla, 1997: Variations of mid-latitude
transient dynamics associated with ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 777-790.
1996
Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla, 1996:
The effect on regional and global climate of expansion of the WorldÕs deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122,
530, 451-482.
Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 1996: A comparison of two surface
wind analyses over the tropical Atlantic during 1980-87. J. Climate, 9, 906-927.
Nobre. P. and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea
surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and
South America. J. Climate, 9, 2464-2479.
Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1996: The influence of land surface
properties on Sahel climate. PART
II: Afforestation. J. Climate, 9, 3260-3275.
1995
Huang, B., J.A. Carton and J. Shukla, 1995: A
numerical simulation of the variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
1980-88. J. Phys. Oceanog., 25, 835-854.
Paolino,
D. A., Q. Yang, B. Doty, J. Kinter, J. Shukla, D. Straus, 1995: Results
of a pilot reanalysis project at COLA.
Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 76,
697-710.
Schneider, E.K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 1995: Ocean
Wave Dynamics of El Ni–o. J. Climate,
8, 2415-2439.
Shukla,
J. 1995: On the initiation
and persistence of the Sahel drought. Natural Climate Variability
on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy Press, Washington,
D.C., 44-48.
Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1994: Albedo as a modulator of climate
response to tropical deforestation. J. Geophys. Res., 99,
923-935.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994: GCM
Simulations of active and break monsoon periods.
Proc. MONEG International Conference on Moonsoon Variability and Prediction,
Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp. 576-585.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994: Simulation
and predictability of monsoons. Proc.
MONEG International Conference on Moonsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste,
Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp 567-575.
Fennessy, M. J., J. L. Kinter III,
B. Kirtman, L. Marx., S. Nigam, E. Schneider, J. Shukla., D. Straus. A. Vernekar, Y. Xue, and J. Zhou, 1994: The simulated
Asian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study. J. Climate, 7, 33-43.
Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J.
Shukla, 1994: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on Indian monsoon. J. of Climate,
8, 248-266.
Yang, R., M. J. Fennessy and J. Shukla, 1994: The influence of initial soil wetness
on medium range surface weather
forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 471-485.
Yang, R., J. Shukla and P. J. Sellers, 1994: The influence of changes in vegetation
type on the surface energy budget. Advances
in Atmospheric Sciences, 11, 139-161.
1993
Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1993: Observational and Modeling Studies of
the Influence of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Atmospheric Circulation (Review).
Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental
Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla,
1-24.
Fennessy, M.J., J.L. Kinter III, L. Marx, P. Sellers
and J. Shukla, 1993: Influence of
initial soil wetness on GCM simulation of th 1988 U.S. drought and heat wave. Conference
on Hydroclimatology (Anaheim, CA,
17-22 January 1993).
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1993: Aperiodic
variability in the Cane-Zebick model: A diagnostic study.
J. Climate, 5,
628-638.
Robinson, A.R., C.J. Garrett, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, S.
Manage, S.G. Philander, N. Pinardi, W. Roether, F.A. Schott and J. Shukla,
1993: Mediterranean and Global Ocean and Climate Dynamics. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 74, No. 44, 506-507.
Shukla, J. 1993:
Predictability of short-term climate variations. Prediction of Interannual
Climate Variations. NATO
ASI Series I: Global Environmental
Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 217-232.
Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1993: The effect of Eurasian spring snow
cover on Indian summer monsoon. WCRP-80,
WMO/TD-No. 546, 69-73.
Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1993:
The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. PART I: Desertification. J. Climate, 6, 2232-2245.
1992
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1992: Influence of Global SST on GCM
simulations of the Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Circulations of 1987 and 1988. Report
of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and
Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October
21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.37‑2.46.
Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, J. L. Kinter III and J.
Shukla, 1992: The influence of
global SST on the 1988 U.S. Drought:
A comparison with two general circulation models. Proc. Workshop on 1988 U.S. Drought, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland,
College Park, MD 20742.
Shukla, J. and M. J. Fennessy, 1992: Idealized numerical experiments to diagnose
the simulated Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation
Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October
21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.153‑2.157.
1991
Carton, J. A. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. J. of Marine Systems, 1,
299‑313.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1991:
Comparison
of the impact of the 1982‑83 and 1986‑88 Pacific SST anomalies
on time mean prediction of atmospheric circulation and rainfall.
J. Clim., 4,
407‑423.
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability and variability of a
coupled ocean‑atmosphere model.
J. of Marine Systems, 1, 217‑228.
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability
of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model.
J. Climate, 3, 2‑22.
Kinter III, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx and B. Doty, 1991:
Relationship between GCM forecast errors and seasonal variability:
Tropical heating and extratropical circulation. IUGG XX General Assembly, IAMAP Symposium on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow and
Variability (Vienna, Austria, 19-23 August, 1991).
IAMAP, 1991.
Nobre, C. A., P. J. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1991: Amazonian deforestation and regional
climate change. J. Climate,
4, 957‑988.
Shukla, J., M. J. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter III, L. Marx
and E. K, Schneider, 1991: Seasonal predictions with the COLA GCM. Proc.
ICTP/WMO Technical Conference on Long-Range Weather Forecasting Research, 249.
Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. Kinter and J. Shukla, 1991:
A simplified model for global climate studies. J. Climate,
4, 345‑364.
1990
Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1990: The global
hydrologic and energy cycles: Suggestions for studies in the pre-GEWEX period. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 181-189.
Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990: Amazonia deforestation and climate change.
Science, 247, 1322‑1325.
1989
Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1989: Meeting Review: Reanalysis for TOGA
(Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere).
Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc., 70, 1422‑1427.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Index of activity of the monsoon trough
over India. MAUSAM, 40, 247‑258.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Main features of the westward‑moving
summer monsoon low pressure systems which form over the Indian regions during
the summer monsoon season and their relation to the monsoon rainfall. MAUSAM, 40, 137‑152.
Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K.
Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi,
1989: Effects of implementing the
simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46,
2757‑2782.
Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K.
Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi,
1989: Effects of implementing the
simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model: Methodologies and results. NASA Contractor Report 185509, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
20771, 76 pp.
Shukla, J., 1989: Tropical
forecasting: Predictability perspective. Austral. Meteor. Mag., 37, 141‑153.
1988
Bengtsson, L. and J. Shukla, 1988: Integration of
space and in situ observation to study climate change. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 69,
1130-1143.
Charney, J. G., E. Kalnay, E. K. Schneider and J.
Shukla, 1988: A study of the dynamics of the ITCZ in a symmetric
atmosphere-ocean model. (Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9
December 1977), New Delhi, India, NASA Tech. Memo. 86220, 20pp.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Impact of the 1982‑3 and 1986‑7
Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction with the GLAS GCM. Proceedings of a Workshop on
Modelling the Sensitivity and Variations of the Ocean‑Atmosphere System (11‑13 May, 1988), ECMWF, England, World Climate
Research Program Report: WCRP‑15. (WMO/TD ‑ No. 254), Geneva, pp.
26‑44.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric
response to the time‑varying El Ni–o SST anomalies during May 1982
through October 1983. J. Climate,
1, 195‑211.
Kinter, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx, E. Schneider,
1988: A simulation of the winter
and summer circulation with the NMC global spectral model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45,
2486‑2522.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1988: Characteristics of the westward‑moving
summer monsoon low pressure systems over the Indian region and their
relationship with the monsoon rainfall.
Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD,
USA.
Shukla, J., 1988: Predictability of monthly mean circulation and rainfall:
Part I: Classical dynamical predictability experiments; and Part II: Influences
of 1982‑83 and 1986‑87 El Ni–o SST anomalies. Proceedings of the Workshop on
Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (16‑18 May 1988), ECMWF, England, 251‑261.
Shukla, J., 1988: Variability of rainfall over tropical oceans: Scientific basis and justification for
TRMM. Tropical Rainfall
Measurements. Editors: J. S. Theon and N. Fugono, A. Deepak Publishing, pp. 75‑79.
Shukla, J. and M. Fennessy, 1988: Prediction of time mean atmospheric
circulation and rainfall:
Influence of Pacific SST anomaly.
J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 9‑28.
Shukla, J., D. A. Mooley and D. A. Paolino, 1988: Long range forecasting of summer
monsoon rainfall over India. Persistent
meteo‑oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections, Pontificale academiae scientiarum scripta varia, 69. Editors: C. Chagas and G. Puppi, Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, pp.
147‑178.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a
GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations. Part I: Mean fields and the annual
harmonic. Atmosphere‑Ocean,
26, 541‑574.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a
GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to observations. Part II: Stationary waves and transient
fluctuations. Atmosphere‑Ocean,
26, 575‑607.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: The seasonal cycle of energetics from
the GLAS/UMD Climate GCM. NASA Tech.
Memo. 100714.
Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, 1988: Influence of land‑surface
roughness on atmospheric circulation and rainfall: A sensitivity study with
GCM. J. Clim. App. Meteor.,
27, 1036‑1054.
1987
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Evaluation of April 500 mb ridge and
Darwin pressure trend as predictors for Indian monsoon rainfall. Proceedings of the Fifth Conference
on Applied Meteorology (10‑12
March 1987), Baltimore, MD, published by AMS, 46‑48.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Variability and forecasting of the
summer monsoon rainfall over India.
Monsoon Meteorology. Editors: C. P. Chang and T. N.
Krishnamurti. Oxford University
Press, pp. 26‑59.
Shukla, J, 1987:
General circulation modeling and the tropics. Geophysiology of Amazonia:Vegetation and Climate Interactions.
Editor: R. E. Dickinson,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 409‑461.
Shukla, J., 1987: Interannual variability of monsoons. Monsoons.
Editors: Jay S.Fein and
Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 399‑464.
Shukla, J., 1987: Long range forecasting of Indian monsoons. Science Age, November, 21‑23.
Shukla, J, 1987:
Long range forecasting of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors: Jay S. Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., pp. 523‑547.
Shukla, J, 1987:
Numerical simulation of atmospheric response to observed SST anomalies
and oceanic response to observed wind stress: Intercomparison of results from various GCMs. Proceedings of the Workshop on
Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (17‑19 March 1986), ECMWF, England, pp. 205‑220.
Shukla, J. and D. A. Mooley, 1987: Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon
rainfall over India. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 117,
695‑703.
1986
Shukla, J., 1986: SST anomalies and blocking. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 29.
Editor: R. Benzi, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 443‑452.
1985