Unusual Weather - Not Necessarily Climate Change

We have had a number of inquiries about the unusual winter weather in the United States during 1995-96: a record blizzard that swept up the U.S. east coast in January 1996, the prolonged cold and blizzard conditions in the midwest U.S. during the latter part of January and early February, and the record rainfall and accompanying floods that affected the Pacific Northwest. There is great interest in these events since they take many lives and cost many hundreds of millions of dollars. We believe that we have received so many inquiries because there have been numerous articles in the press about the hypothetical link between these events and the prospect of global warming. Despite the seeming contradiction between global warming and severe cold weather, even blizzards, this link has been suggested by some climate researchers in media interviews (e.g., Newsweek, 22 January 1996, pp. 20-29). In order to encourage a more balanced view, we are providing the following statements which we consider to be completely defensible based on what has been observed and understood about the earth's weather and climate:

• Weather events should not be confused with climate.
• The extreme events of winter 1995-96 were associated with normal features of the climate.
• The underlying causes of the magnitude of these unusual weather features are not completely understood.
• Global climate change due to enhanced greenhouse warming is expected, according to the best available climate models.
• The extreme weather predicted by global warming models may or may not be really happening.
• The connection between the blizzard of 1996 and global warming is a pure speculation.
• National Weather Service forecasts have been accurate this winter.

Please note that these statements (and all other opinions on the connection between climate change and weather) are based on the current understanding of incomplete geophysical datasets, and imperfect geophysical models. They should be viewed in this context. We are placing these statements on the World Wide Web to stimulate thought and discussion. Please address your comments to: Jim Kinter (kinter@cola.iges.org).