4th International CLIVAR Climate of the 20th Century Workshop

13-15th March 2007

Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter, UK


Tuesday, 13 March 2007
08.30-09.00   Arrival, check-in and refreshments
09:00-09:15 Refreshments
09:15 Convene
09:15-09:30 Scaife, A./Knight, J./Ineson, S. - Welcome to the Hadley Centre
09:30-10:00 Folland, C. / Kinter, J.- C20C: History, Status and Workshop Aims
10:00-10:20 Coffee
Session 1: 20th Century AGCM simulations
10:20-10:45 Schubert, S., M. Saurez, P. Pegion, R. Koster and J. Bacmeister - The impact of SST and vegetation changes on long-term drought
10:45-11:10 Nakaegawa, T. - Potential predictability of seasonal mean river discharge in dynamical ensemble prediction using MRI/JMA GCM
11:10-11:35
 Kucharski, F., F. Molteni, A. Bracco, J. Kroeger, M. P. King, and J. H. Yoo - Results from the C20C Integrations at ICTP
Session 2: Pacemaker experiments and other simulation methods
11:35-12:00 Blade, I., M. Newman, M. Alexander and J. Scott - The Impact Of Ocean/Atmosphere Coupling on North Pacific Atmospheric Variability in a "Pacemaker" Experiment: Sensitivity to Convection in the Tropical Northwest Pacific
12:00-12:25 Jin, E. and J. Kinter - The Evolution of the Lead-Lag ENSO-Indian Monsoon Relationship in GCM Experiments
12:25-13:25 Lunch
13:25-13:50 Cash, B., J. Kinter, and X. Rodo - Exploring Links Between Climate and Cholera in Bangladesh Using a Regionally Coupled Model
13:50-14:15 Joly, M. - A New Approach to Reproduce 20th Century ENSO Variability in an OAGCM
14:15-14:40 Schneider, E., and M. Fan - Simulating the Actual Climate of the 20th Century with a Coupled GCM
Session 3: Pacific variability and monsoons
14:40-15:05 Lau, G. - Interactions between the Responses of North American Climate to El Niño/La Niña and
to Secular Warming Trend in the Indian-Western Pacific Oceans
15:05-15:30 Dong, M. T. Wu, Z. Wang, and F. Zhang - The Madden-Julian Oscillation simulated by the Beijing Climate Center's AGCM
15:30-15:50 Coffee
15:50-16:15 Cherchi, A. and A. Navarra - Sensitivity of the Indo-Pacific Climate Variability to Different Forcing in XXth Century Simulations
16:15-16:40 Zhou, T., and A. Dai - The 20th Century East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulated by Coupled Climate Models of IPCC AR4
Session 4: Extra-tropical circulation variability
16:40-17:05 Fereday, D., J. Knight, A. Scaife, C. Folland and A. Philip - 20thC Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic-European circulation clusters
17:05-17:30 Grainger, S., C. Frederiksen, X. Zheng and H. Zhang - Interannual Variability of Atmospheric Circulation in C20C Models
17:30-17:55 Straus, D. and X. Zheng - Circulation Regimes and Regime Transition Probabilities in the COLA C20C Integrations: Dependence on The Slowly Varying Climate State and SST Forcing
18:00 Close day 1 - Return to Exeter via coach




Wednesday, 14 March 2007
08.30-09.00   Arrival, check-in
Session 5: Observational data sets
09:00-09:30 Rayner, N. - Surface marine data development at the Hadley Centre
09:30-09:55 Ingleby, B., and M. Palmer - Ocean Heat Content: Estimates and uncertainties 1950 - present
09:55-10:20 Bronnimann, S., T. Griesser, T. Ewen, and A. Grant - A monthly, three-dimensional data set of the global atmosphere, 1870-2005
10:20-10:40 Coffee
Session 6: Atlantic variability and its links with the Pacific
10:40-11:05 Knight, J. - Evidence for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as an internal climate mode from coupled GCM simulations.
11:05-11:30 Folland, C., D. Fereday, H. Linderholm, J. Hurrell, S. Ineson, J. Knight, and A. Scaife - The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) since the 18th Century
11:30-11:55 Huddleston, M. -  Dynamically-Based Seasonal forecasts of Atlantic Tropical-storm Activity (mpeg movie of 2005 hurricanes)
11:55-12:20 Ineson, S., and A. Scaife  - ENSO-NAO interactions in an atmospheric model
12:20-13:15 Lunch
Session 7: The role of the land surface in 20th century climate
13:15-13:40 de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. and A. Pitman - LUCID: Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of Robust Impacts
13:40-14:05 Voldoire, A. - Impact of Land Use Changes on Extremes in the ARPEGE-Climat Model (LUCID Experiment)
14:05-14:30 Betts, R. - The influence of land use changes on 20th century climate
14:30-14:55 Davin, E., N. de Noblet-Ducoudré and P. Friedlingstein - Questioning the Relevance of the Radiative Forcing Concept for Anthropogenic Land-Cover Change Issues
14:55-15:20 Davin, E., N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, C. Laguerre, P. Terray and E. Guilyardi - Perturbations of the El Niño Southern Oscillation Resulting from the Land-Use Induced Land-Cover Changes in the IPSL Climate Model
15:20-15:40 Coffee
15:40 Depart for visit to Dartmoor
18:30 Workshop dinner at the Oxenham Arms, South Zeal, Dartmoor
22:45 Return to Exeter




Thursday, 15 March 2007
08:30-09:00   Arrival, check-in
Session 8: Related Projects and the role of the Stratosphere
09:00-09:30 Xue, Y., W. Lau, and K. Cook - The West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) Project
09:30-09:55 Scaife, A., J. Knight, C. Folland, A. Moberg, L. Alexander and S. Ineson - Influence of the stratosphere on decadal variability of surface winter climate
09:55-10:20 Fischer, A., S. Brönniman, E. Rozanov, N. Zeltner, and S. Krähenmann - Stratospheric Chemical-Climate Variability During the 20th Century
10:20-10:50 Kushner, P. - The SPARC Dynamics and Variability Project
10:50-11:10 Coffee
11:10-11:20 Introduction to the break-out sessions
11:20-12:20 Break-out groups:
  1. Simulating the land surface - leader Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré
  2. Techniques for sequenced simulations of 20th century climate - leader Gabriel Lau
  3. SST and observational forcing data for C20C - leaders David Parker, Jeff Knight (Nick Rayner)
12:20-13:10 Lunch
13:10-13:20 Workshop photo
13:20-14:20 Break-out groups continued
14:20-15:20

Open session on model intercomparisons - leader Fred Kucharski
and Testing models - leader Adam Scaife

15:20-15:40 Coffee
15:40-16:40
 Break out summaries and discussion (20 minutes each)
16:40-17:30 Discussion, meeting summary, planning and actions
17:30 Meeting close